* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/25/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 49 50 55 58 57 54 50 44 39 33 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 49 50 55 58 57 54 50 44 39 33 V (KT) LGE mod 45 48 51 52 54 56 57 56 55 52 49 45 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 12 11 8 5 1 6 4 12 11 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 -1 3 0 6 1 2 SHEAR DIR 41 41 44 40 33 35 311 182 182 215 224 215 240 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 147 146 142 136 133 128 124 121 116 114 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 66 68 67 63 61 54 48 41 35 29 28 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 14 14 14 15 16 16 15 14 11 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 37 34 32 24 17 24 21 25 21 27 16 200 MB DIV -12 17 29 16 21 30 4 13 -10 -10 -28 -26 -16 700-850 TADV -3 -7 -6 -2 0 -1 1 2 -1 0 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 632 642 615 604 609 632 594 542 496 440 384 345 314 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.1 23.5 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 110.3 111.3 112.3 113.1 113.9 114.9 115.6 116.0 116.1 115.9 115.6 115.4 115.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 13 14 14 14 11 7 4 6 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 10. 13. 12. 9. 5. -1. -6. -12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/25/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##