* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 09/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 42 43 42 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 36 40 42 43 42 41 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 30 32 34 36 37 39 40 40 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 5 6 8 9 13 10 12 16 20 20 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 0 -1 -1 0 3 2 1 2 3 1 SHEAR DIR 230 253 258 254 262 284 278 275 270 279 267 280 272 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 133 133 133 135 137 140 140 142 142 144 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 123 123 123 123 126 129 133 134 137 138 140 143 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 38 39 39 40 41 41 43 44 47 48 51 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -19 -27 -30 -27 -25 -26 -24 -21 -19 -9 -21 -19 200 MB DIV 13 3 2 2 -2 8 3 -7 -6 -16 -10 -3 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1344 1335 1327 1324 1320 1291 1238 1163 1106 1043 1017 853 691 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.4 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.5 43.8 44.0 44.3 45.0 45.9 47.1 48.6 50.4 52.3 54.4 56.7 STM SPEED (KT) 0 3 3 3 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 20 21 22 24 28 29 27 31 52 50 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):130/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 17. 16. 15. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 09/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 09/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 09/26/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED