* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/26/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 40 42 46 48 49 48 43 40 37 32 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 40 42 46 48 49 48 43 40 37 32 V (KT) LGE mod 40 39 38 38 38 39 40 41 41 40 38 36 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 8 7 1 3 6 6 9 9 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 -6 0 0 1 3 5 4 6 1 SHEAR DIR 40 40 34 20 19 50 184 241 171 231 222 223 235 SST (C) 27.9 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 144 148 146 142 139 133 128 125 122 118 116 115 115 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 67 69 66 62 61 58 51 46 38 34 30 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 18 19 19 19 19 19 16 15 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 31 39 38 36 32 19 25 25 30 34 34 35 24 200 MB DIV 12 32 24 32 34 -5 -7 -7 -2 -24 -23 -17 -26 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -3 -2 -2 0 1 0 -1 -2 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 628 602 597 604 622 617 565 519 463 431 415 392 350 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 18.9 19.3 20.1 21.1 21.9 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.3 23.4 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.4 113.3 114.0 114.6 115.5 116.1 116.3 116.1 116.0 116.0 115.8 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 7 7 6 5 3 3 2 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 13 10 8 4 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -2. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. 0. 2. 6. 8. 9. 8. 3. 0. -3. -8. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##