* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 09/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 44 48 48 48 46 46 46 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 35 40 44 48 48 48 46 46 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 41 43 45 46 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 6 7 8 10 10 12 13 17 18 24 24 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 0 1 2 2 3 1 4 0 SHEAR DIR 237 258 262 277 285 289 285 280 289 284 285 286 277 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 137 137 137 139 141 143 145 146 146 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 128 128 128 129 131 135 140 143 144 144 147 148 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 39 38 40 41 42 41 45 44 45 44 45 44 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -31 -35 -34 -35 -35 -32 -26 -23 -19 -16 -11 -23 200 MB DIV 4 6 3 2 3 21 -7 10 -18 1 -7 8 -3 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 1 0 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1293 1277 1261 1243 1225 1176 1086 991 917 880 741 543 441 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.1 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.2 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.6 44.0 44.4 44.8 45.8 47.0 48.7 50.5 52.6 54.9 57.4 60.2 STM SPEED (KT) 2 4 4 4 4 5 7 9 10 11 11 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 20 21 24 29 32 33 40 49 48 49 50 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 15. 19. 23. 23. 23. 21. 21. 21. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 09/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 09/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 09/26/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)