* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/26/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 46 48 50 50 48 44 38 34 27 23 V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 46 48 50 50 48 44 38 34 27 23 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 46 46 47 47 45 43 41 39 36 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 10 8 5 2 7 7 11 12 15 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 1 -2 1 0 3 1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 43 30 38 52 74 106 174 191 211 223 206 214 216 SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 142 139 135 130 127 126 122 119 117 118 117 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 66 65 61 61 60 54 48 41 36 31 30 26 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 16 16 16 16 14 12 10 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 38 35 37 33 22 26 17 21 22 26 15 17 200 MB DIV 33 17 30 36 24 -9 9 9 3 -14 -14 -4 -18 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 623 629 648 648 657 618 596 549 478 436 436 436 445 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.2 18.5 19.0 19.5 20.4 20.9 21.6 22.4 22.8 22.8 22.8 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.3 114.1 114.7 115.2 116.0 116.3 116.4 116.2 116.0 116.0 116.0 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 4 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 HEAT CONTENT 14 13 11 8 6 3 4 5 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -6. -11. -18. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##