* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/26/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 53 55 55 52 49 44 39 34 29 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 53 55 55 52 49 44 39 34 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 47 48 48 47 45 43 41 40 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 8 4 1 6 6 5 7 7 12 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -1 -1 0 1 3 0 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 21 21 46 71 9 131 180 177 238 184 228 220 233 SST (C) 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 137 134 132 127 125 121 118 117 119 121 121 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 62 62 61 59 50 44 38 33 29 28 24 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 18 17 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 35 32 34 39 29 30 29 23 28 24 24 21 34 200 MB DIV 11 34 33 24 -2 -19 6 -2 -1 -14 -20 -17 -15 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -3 0 -2 0 LAND (KM) 657 661 676 667 645 625 590 562 517 494 499 533 594 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.3 22.8 22.9 22.8 22.5 22.2 LONG(DEG W) 113.7 114.4 115.1 115.6 116.0 116.7 117.0 117.1 116.9 116.7 116.7 116.9 117.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 6 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 7. 4. -1. -6. -11. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##