* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/26/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 47 48 48 48 44 41 37 31 26 22 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 47 48 48 48 44 41 37 31 26 22 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 46 46 44 42 40 39 37 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 5 4 4 7 8 8 8 16 18 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 20 46 52 25 49 151 169 205 194 220 236 243 257 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 134 132 130 126 125 121 119 119 118 120 120 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 61 54 48 40 36 30 28 25 22 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 17 16 15 15 13 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 30 33 38 34 26 35 31 32 36 39 35 35 32 200 MB DIV 27 39 28 5 11 7 2 0 -6 -7 -17 -28 -19 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 0 2 1 1 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 740 740 748 726 710 678 613 591 589 589 574 589 626 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.4 22.3 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.3 115.8 116.2 116.6 117.2 117.2 117.3 117.4 117.4 117.3 117.4 117.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 0 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 7 6 4 3 1 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 410 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -4. -8. -14. -19. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/26/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##