* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/27/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 63 66 68 68 64 57 49 41 33 28 25 V (KT) LAND 55 60 63 66 68 68 64 57 49 41 33 28 25 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 65 66 65 61 56 51 47 44 43 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 3 5 7 8 9 13 16 14 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 1 3 0 1 -3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 40 41 1 24 132 159 155 205 208 229 239 252 228 SST (C) 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 133 131 130 127 125 122 120 120 122 123 124 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 64 64 62 56 54 48 41 36 32 30 27 26 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 17 18 17 15 14 11 9 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 27 29 22 13 21 31 23 27 28 30 23 24 16 200 MB DIV 35 27 5 13 20 18 4 1 -11 -9 -31 -18 -28 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 2 0 0 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 752 752 748 718 692 655 611 584 577 577 584 612 649 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.5 20.0 20.8 21.4 21.8 21.9 21.9 21.8 21.5 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.6 116.0 116.3 116.6 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.1 117.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 5 4 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 422 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 13. 13. 9. 2. -6. -14. -22. -27. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##