* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/27/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 62 60 55 48 40 32 27 21 18 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 62 60 55 48 40 32 27 21 18 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 62 63 60 56 51 47 43 40 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 3 4 6 5 13 11 17 19 18 15 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -4 -5 -4 0 0 1 -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 27 337 356 161 204 184 193 202 224 240 244 250 238 SST (C) 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 132 130 129 125 124 122 120 120 122 122 122 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 65 61 56 54 50 44 40 33 32 29 29 26 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 31 19 13 20 25 19 27 26 34 23 26 10 17 200 MB DIV 13 8 12 25 39 4 10 -8 -19 -11 -25 -8 -28 700-850 TADV -2 -2 0 1 3 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 LAND (KM) 738 719 694 660 628 587 559 539 527 536 571 601 639 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.4 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 115.9 116.2 116.3 116.4 116.7 116.7 116.7 116.7 116.8 117.0 117.2 117.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 3 1 5 1 5 1 0 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 0. -7. -15. -23. -28. -34. -37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##