* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 57 57 54 49 41 36 28 22 17 DIS V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 57 57 54 49 41 36 28 22 17 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 55 55 55 54 52 49 45 41 38 36 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 5 8 7 11 13 16 18 21 17 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -5 -5 -2 0 3 -2 2 -1 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 332 341 160 196 206 188 206 202 224 242 251 233 239 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 128 127 124 122 120 121 123 123 121 120 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 54 51 48 45 39 35 31 30 28 27 26 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 17 17 14 14 12 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 19 24 22 16 29 30 28 23 20 8 5 200 MB DIV 10 11 23 49 22 4 3 -14 -12 -21 -22 -32 -20 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 725 698 675 645 617 590 577 565 588 624 690 720 743 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.0 21.7 21.2 21.0 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.4 116.6 116.7 116.8 117.0 117.0 117.0 117.2 117.4 117.8 118.0 118.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 2 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 1 1 5 1 0 3 5 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -4. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -14. -19. -27. -33. -38. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##