* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 68 63 54 43 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 68 63 54 43 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 71 68 65 57 51 45 40 36 32 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 12 18 18 16 20 20 25 26 27 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 0 1 0 0 1 -2 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 189 189 190 207 227 197 231 220 225 216 234 223 242 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.6 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 122 121 119 118 120 121 120 118 116 113 109 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -53.1 -53.6 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 38 36 34 33 30 29 26 24 21 22 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 20 19 18 15 14 12 10 8 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 28 28 27 26 36 29 28 19 27 17 6 200 MB DIV 16 21 15 -1 -28 0 -6 -11 -16 -10 -8 -12 -11 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 3 LAND (KM) 626 610 597 594 592 601 626 670 726 782 841 916 1008 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.2 22.4 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.6 21.4 21.3 21.2 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.2 117.3 117.4 117.5 117.6 117.7 118.0 118.5 119.0 119.6 120.5 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 3 2 1 1 2 2 3 2 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -12. -21. -32. -41. -51. -60. -70. -76. -82. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##