* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 09/28/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 41 46 50 53 55 55 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 28 31 36 41 46 50 53 55 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 29 32 35 40 44 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 25 27 26 20 15 17 9 15 10 9 9 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 -2 -2 -3 -1 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 56 61 59 60 60 39 48 29 45 24 51 35 25 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 152 153 154 156 157 156 154 150 150 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.8 -52.0 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 7 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 79 77 78 78 77 75 76 76 77 79 80 81 83 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 21 21 18 17 7 18 29 25 25 20 22 7 200 MB DIV 39 24 29 61 60 73 85 86 99 77 88 91 67 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -2 -1 LAND (KM) 418 406 400 417 437 456 441 408 363 308 276 292 337 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.0 15.4 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 95.5 96.0 96.4 96.9 97.4 98.4 99.2 99.7 100.3 101.1 102.0 103.2 104.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 28 24 18 13 10 13 18 27 29 24 22 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 14. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 09/28/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 09/28/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##