* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 58 52 48 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 61 58 52 48 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 61 58 55 52 47 42 37 33 30 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 14 18 19 19 20 24 25 31 29 30 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -1 0 -1 1 -1 0 0 -2 0 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 198 196 188 212 217 216 224 226 221 209 217 223 243 SST (C) 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.9 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 124 122 120 118 118 119 120 120 118 115 112 111 113 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 42 40 38 36 34 34 31 28 24 20 17 16 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 20 18 17 15 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 23 24 29 23 30 35 38 35 31 38 31 29 1 200 MB DIV 14 15 14 -28 -13 -1 -6 -15 -13 -13 2 -4 -9 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 6 8 10 LAND (KM) 630 613 598 607 616 639 673 723 799 872 931 1038 1200 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.0 22.3 22.3 22.3 22.2 21.9 21.5 21.1 20.9 21.1 20.8 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.5 117.5 117.6 117.7 117.9 118.1 118.4 119.0 119.7 120.6 121.8 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 4 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -16. -20. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -13. -17. -26. -34. -43. -52. -60. -69. -76. -80. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##