* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 09/28/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 44 50 55 58 61 62 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 33 37 44 50 55 58 61 62 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 33 37 43 49 56 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 28 26 20 17 17 10 13 7 9 5 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -4 0 -4 -1 -4 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 60 60 60 46 47 36 31 31 35 18 28 6 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.5 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 154 153 154 156 160 160 157 155 149 146 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 77 76 76 76 76 77 79 79 81 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 20 20 18 11 11 21 37 22 31 18 38 10 200 MB DIV 23 30 64 65 49 87 78 104 86 89 67 67 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -1 -3 -1 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 402 400 402 416 432 425 382 328 248 172 125 119 201 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.1 12.0 12.2 12.7 13.4 14.5 15.6 16.6 17.2 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 95.8 96.2 96.6 97.1 97.7 98.5 99.0 99.5 100.2 101.0 102.0 103.6 105.8 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 7 7 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 21 16 12 12 17 25 34 21 19 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 09/28/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 09/28/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##