* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/29/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 44 38 32 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 44 38 32 27 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 45 41 37 35 30 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 17 19 24 25 27 30 30 30 32 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 0 0 -1 0 -3 0 -6 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 213 203 218 227 228 226 209 207 195 204 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 117 116 115 115 117 118 116 115 114 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 34 34 34 30 30 27 27 29 33 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 10 9 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 34 28 36 32 20 16 17 13 0 -15 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 -4 18 7 -3 -14 -10 -8 5 15 17 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 587 578 569 573 578 587 615 659 709 743 779 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.5 22.7 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.7 22.5 22.3 22.2 22.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.5 117.5 117.6 117.6 117.7 117.9 118.3 118.8 119.2 119.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 0 0 1 2 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -18. -23. -32. -40. -48. -56. -62. -70. -71. -71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##