* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 09/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 47 44 36 30 28 23 20 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 44 47 44 36 30 28 23 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 29 31 31 30 28 28 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 27 29 24 25 38 48 64 57 31 17 16 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 0 -4 2 -6 -5 1 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 292 312 314 295 273 264 243 236 220 243 267 277 238 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.1 26.9 25.4 23.1 21.1 20.2 19.4 19.1 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 128 126 126 124 109 91 79 77 75 73 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 107 107 106 106 105 92 77 69 68 67 65 63 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.8 -56.2 -56.4 -56.3 -55.9 -55.5 -55.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 41 50 60 68 68 63 55 50 40 34 37 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 13 14 13 12 12 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 6 18 18 31 56 70 72 50 31 -1 -28 -18 104 200 MB DIV -1 6 7 32 60 51 56 55 21 -10 -45 -20 36 700-850 TADV 3 6 6 1 7 14 29 20 11 8 4 4 37 LAND (KM) 1012 957 903 871 787 630 453 359 265 223 165 178 95 LAT (DEG N) 32.4 32.9 33.4 34.4 35.3 37.6 39.8 41.6 42.5 42.6 42.3 41.9 42.8 LONG(DEG W) 65.6 66.0 66.4 66.5 66.5 65.3 63.2 61.7 61.7 62.8 64.3 65.7 66.2 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 9 11 13 12 7 3 5 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 12 13 13 9 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 7. -3. -14. -20. -22. -23. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 19. 22. 19. 11. 5. 3. -2. -5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 09/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 09/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 09/29/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED