* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182014 09/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 38 33 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 27 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 35 32 30 25 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 21 24 27 28 32 30 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 210 220 226 229 231 219 200 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.6 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 114 115 116 116 117 117 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 36 34 34 33 32 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 10 10 8 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 25 34 30 28 12 17 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 14 0 -7 -1 -7 0 0 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 1 2 0 2 1 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 573 566 557 568 578 608 651 722 832 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.8 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.8 22.6 22.3 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.5 117.5 117.6 117.7 117.9 118.3 119.0 120.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -13. -19. -24. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -23. -31. -40. -49. -58. -61. -63. -64. -64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182014 RACHEL 09/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##