* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 09/29/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 52 57 61 62 62 63 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 38 45 52 44 34 29 31 32 30 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 38 35 30 28 31 34 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 14 13 15 11 10 8 7 6 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 0 3 3 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 39 39 34 25 23 16 358 23 16 37 343 337 272 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 29.6 29.2 28.9 28.6 27.6 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 154 156 158 161 164 160 157 154 152 142 138 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 6 8 8 10 10 10 9 10 7 7 700-500 MB RH 77 77 77 77 76 78 75 78 77 77 76 75 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 9 17 21 15 28 23 38 27 46 4 20 14 200 MB DIV 44 58 93 96 66 89 49 77 66 45 36 35 17 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -3 0 -3 0 -4 -1 -19 -12 LAND (KM) 311 288 268 235 202 119 46 -26 -59 -73 66 206 229 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.1 15.0 16.1 17.3 18.5 19.4 20.2 21.2 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.7 97.1 97.4 97.7 98.4 99.3 100.4 101.8 103.6 106.3 109.2 112.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 9 9 12 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 42 43 43 45 47 59 30 45 44 43 22 11 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 35. 37. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 27. 32. 36. 37. 37. 38. 36. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 09/29/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 39% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 09/29/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##