* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 09/30/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 44 54 63 71 75 82 86 90 91 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 44 54 63 71 75 82 86 90 91 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 38 45 53 60 65 67 68 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 9 7 8 5 8 8 2 3 4 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 41 45 52 63 39 26 56 69 73 77 54 234 179 SST (C) 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.8 27.7 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 161 161 162 157 153 151 146 144 143 133 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.7 -51.8 -52.4 -51.5 -52.2 -51.3 -52.0 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 9 8 11 9 11 7 8 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 76 79 78 79 78 77 76 73 72 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 17 19 22 26 850 MB ENV VOR 11 18 25 23 31 37 47 53 62 41 51 38 42 200 MB DIV 77 92 73 77 93 64 81 58 60 50 67 38 91 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -12 -9 0 LAND (KM) 235 205 175 152 140 107 64 22 44 166 311 402 557 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.8 16.8 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.6 98.0 98.5 98.9 100.0 101.3 102.8 104.6 106.9 109.9 113.1 116.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 13 15 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 52 55 54 27 18 18 24 12 12 11 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 15. 19. 23. 27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 19. 29. 38. 46. 50. 57. 61. 65. 66. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 09/30/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 59% is 4.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 09/30/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##