* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 09/30/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 55 61 63 64 63 64 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 55 61 63 64 63 64 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 33 37 41 44 46 48 50 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 14 13 13 11 10 5 15 10 5 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 -4 -5 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 46 55 61 51 60 83 89 97 81 78 117 167 202 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.8 28.0 28.2 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 159 157 155 151 149 146 142 145 147 140 133 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 82 81 80 81 81 81 83 80 80 78 78 75 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 30 36 43 39 57 47 42 32 36 33 38 200 MB DIV 88 73 63 90 102 62 96 70 72 43 43 39 38 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -2 0 -3 -1 -3 -1 -6 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 238 223 207 199 191 195 153 186 265 431 455 570 646 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.8 20.3 LONG(DEG W) 99.3 99.7 100.2 100.7 101.2 102.4 103.7 105.3 107.1 109.4 111.9 114.4 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 12 12 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 38 31 24 20 19 17 16 8 12 17 9 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 30. 36. 38. 39. 38. 39. 37. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 09/30/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 53.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 09/30/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##