* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 09/30/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 40 49 58 63 65 64 63 62 60 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 40 49 58 63 65 64 63 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 45 49 51 52 54 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 11 13 11 9 7 5 5 9 11 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -6 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 59 55 48 55 67 67 113 125 126 150 175 186 193 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.6 28.4 27.9 28.0 28.1 27.7 26.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 155 153 150 148 143 145 146 142 133 127 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -51.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 9 8 8 11 9 10 7 7 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 81 81 81 80 81 79 77 76 75 75 74 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 8 7 7 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 32 34 41 43 53 59 49 30 39 39 61 51 200 MB DIV 70 65 91 93 71 78 59 80 48 45 44 55 39 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 0 -2 -1 -6 -1 -2 -1 3 2 LAND (KM) 209 193 177 171 170 123 142 203 393 447 607 738 860 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.1 17.0 17.8 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.5 100.9 101.5 102.0 103.3 104.8 106.6 109.0 111.7 114.5 116.9 118.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 7 8 8 10 12 13 12 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 27 21 19 18 18 23 11 8 22 8 10 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 390 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 21. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 24. 33. 38. 40. 39. 38. 37. 35. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 09/30/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 09/30/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##