* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 09/30/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 39 47 55 56 55 54 53 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 39 47 55 56 55 54 53 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 36 36 36 36 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 12 10 12 11 17 17 15 11 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 -4 2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 35 49 63 78 83 103 118 123 138 158 175 192 224 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.9 28.1 28.0 27.1 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 150 150 148 144 144 146 146 135 127 122 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 10 10 10 8 8 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 81 79 80 75 73 72 72 70 66 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 35 39 42 47 44 60 41 35 32 31 51 45 45 200 MB DIV 66 68 50 53 63 86 73 59 40 75 50 34 11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 3 2 4 2 2 7 LAND (KM) 217 198 185 172 133 137 171 319 410 522 673 800 943 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.8 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.2 19.9 LONG(DEG W) 101.1 101.6 102.1 102.7 103.3 104.7 106.3 108.3 110.9 113.6 116.3 118.3 119.8 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 7 7 8 8 9 11 12 13 11 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 21 19 19 18 23 14 6 17 14 13 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 3. 2. 4. 3. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 30. 31. 30. 29. 28. 28. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 09/30/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 09/30/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##