* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP902014 10/01/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 36 41 48 55 59 59 59 57 56 53 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 36 41 48 55 59 59 59 57 56 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 31 33 33 34 34 35 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 9 5 9 9 13 8 11 7 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 0 1 -3 -4 -5 -6 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 64 74 85 117 149 127 122 146 181 167 224 229 246 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 146 145 144 142 145 145 137 128 121 117 115 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -52.4 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 8 10 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 80 81 80 80 77 74 70 67 63 58 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 52 49 54 51 38 30 18 35 29 47 37 41 28 200 MB DIV 52 44 61 68 56 87 50 51 53 27 10 3 12 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 1 0 0 -1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 172 155 152 149 161 271 366 409 564 672 775 850 882 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.2 17.7 18.1 18.4 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.2 21.3 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 103.7 104.3 104.8 105.5 106.1 107.9 110.1 112.7 115.4 117.5 118.8 119.7 120.0 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 8 10 12 13 11 8 5 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 21 21 18 9 13 12 2 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 11. 16. 23. 30. 34. 34. 34. 32. 31. 28. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP902014 INVEST 10/01/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902014 INVEST 10/01/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##