* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 10/01/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 45 46 47 46 39 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 42 45 46 47 46 39 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 42 42 42 41 38 35 33 32 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 45 55 57 53 54 39 30 30 33 45 46 43 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -10 -7 -2 -5 0 -3 -3 -3 -6 16 13 14 SHEAR DIR 239 237 235 229 226 260 283 298 273 223 144 124 102 SST (C) 25.9 25.2 24.1 23.1 21.9 20.3 18.7 17.6 16.1 12.8 9.2 7.2 6.0 POT. INT. (KT) 113 106 97 90 84 78 73 70 69 70 69 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 88 81 76 72 69 66 64 65 67 67 66 65 200 MB T (C) -55.9 -55.7 -55.9 -55.6 -55.0 -54.1 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -53.9 -52.2 -50.3 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 63 59 54 52 46 39 35 33 42 48 63 72 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 10 11 13 13 10 8 9 6 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 47 66 66 64 57 22 -6 -60 44 76 111 201 189 200 MB DIV 62 50 31 27 27 4 -14 -51 0 51 81 55 44 700-850 TADV 14 11 11 3 -3 -11 -9 3 34 73 -12 -191 -70 LAND (KM) 565 511 438 375 311 228 143 111 93 -86 -241 -737 -853 LAT (DEG N) 39.5 40.3 41.1 41.7 42.2 42.6 42.7 42.5 42.9 45.7 50.4 54.6 57.9 LONG(DEG W) 61.3 61.0 60.8 61.0 61.2 62.6 64.1 65.6 66.4 67.7 71.0 74.7 78.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 5 6 6 4 9 21 25 22 20 HEAT CONTENT 34 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 13 CX,CY: 8/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -9. -15. -20. -24. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -4. -6. -5. -8. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 7. 6. -1. -13. -23. -28. -39. -45. -51. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 10/01/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 52.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.9/ -1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 10/01/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 10/01/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)