* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192014 10/02/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 62 66 66 64 65 62 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 53 62 66 66 64 65 62 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 41 41 41 40 39 39 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 8 2 1 5 8 11 5 8 2 5 12 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -2 0 1 -2 0 -4 -4 -6 -6 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 81 115 151 179 126 129 133 141 113 214 221 280 264 SST (C) 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.7 26.9 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 142 142 142 144 142 141 131 125 121 118 116 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -51.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 83 82 80 79 77 76 75 76 74 66 62 55 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 12 16 18 19 19 20 18 19 850 MB ENV VOR 52 46 32 22 25 23 36 21 18 14 26 18 15 200 MB DIV 63 62 58 48 72 50 75 35 27 27 42 -7 11 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -3 -1 -1 2 -1 -1 0 0 3 2 LAND (KM) 171 174 200 248 295 368 347 419 437 436 387 387 420 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.7 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.7 21.6 22.3 22.9 23.4 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 105.0 105.8 106.5 107.3 108.1 109.7 111.5 113.3 114.8 115.6 115.5 115.8 116.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 6 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 13 9 9 11 14 9 2 4 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 12. 15. 16. 16. 17. 15. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 32. 36. 36. 34. 35. 32. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 NINETEEN 10/02/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 NINETEEN 10/02/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##