* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972014 10/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 46 42 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 46 42 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 45 43 40 37 35 30 30 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 52 49 48 43 37 27 31 30 46 32 40 33 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 1 2 1 0 -2 -3 -2 -13 16 19 9 2 SHEAR DIR 237 232 228 235 251 283 305 287 248 170 134 114 98 SST (C) 25.5 24.9 23.9 23.2 22.2 20.6 19.7 17.9 14.3 8.8 6.3 4.5 3.8 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 95 90 85 79 75 72 70 68 67 65 64 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 84 79 76 72 69 66 66 67 67 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -52.8 -51.5 -51.2 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 56 53 48 43 38 35 35 43 50 55 61 59 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 13 13 10 7 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 95 94 65 40 2 -44 18 62 57 91 50 22 200 MB DIV 31 40 38 39 4 -24 -35 1 29 59 34 35 10 700-850 TADV 13 14 7 -1 0 -5 2 23 85 64 -131 -60 -42 LAND (KM) 516 478 421 371 320 243 175 105 -13 21 -456 -503 -537 LAT (DEG N) 40.0 40.6 41.2 41.6 42.0 42.4 42.3 42.7 44.8 49.2 53.9 57.5 60.0 LONG(DEG W) 61.4 61.2 61.0 61.3 61.6 62.8 64.1 64.8 65.1 66.4 68.9 71.6 74.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 7 16 24 22 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 6 CX,CY: 3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 694 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -13. -14. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -13. -16. -19. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. -13. -23. -32. -41. -50. -57. -62. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972014 INVEST 10/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.7/ -0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972014 INVEST 10/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972014 INVEST 10/02/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED