* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192014 10/02/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 48 51 60 65 67 63 59 57 55 49 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 48 51 60 65 67 63 59 57 55 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 45 48 49 50 50 49 47 46 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 5 3 5 8 9 5 6 4 5 14 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -4 -3 -7 -3 3 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 100 89 88 114 132 98 123 97 157 238 247 268 268 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.7 26.9 26.3 25.7 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 142 143 143 144 140 131 125 118 114 114 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.1 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 81 81 79 77 76 76 76 77 72 64 53 45 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 11 13 14 13 13 13 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 34 24 21 21 25 29 25 22 29 29 26 8 200 MB DIV 64 76 54 70 78 62 65 34 33 50 12 -1 -25 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 0 -3 -1 1 0 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 176 208 257 314 374 392 397 450 452 430 392 374 365 LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.2 18.5 18.7 18.9 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.5 22.5 23.5 24.0 24.0 LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.5 107.3 108.1 108.9 110.5 112.1 113.6 114.9 115.7 115.9 115.9 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 8 9 10 16 14 9 2 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 405 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 9. 11. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 25. 30. 32. 28. 24. 22. 20. 14. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 NINETEEN 10/02/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 2.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 NINETEEN 10/02/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##