* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/02/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 48 54 63 70 73 72 69 66 65 60 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 48 54 63 70 73 72 69 66 65 60 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 43 46 49 51 52 51 49 48 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 5 3 9 5 9 3 5 12 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -3 -4 -6 -2 0 4 7 SHEAR DIR 109 133 118 106 84 110 124 105 137 192 287 288 287 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 143 144 144 144 142 135 127 121 117 115 114 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -50.9 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 73 73 73 74 73 65 57 49 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 13 15 18 20 21 21 20 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 25 22 14 27 17 15 18 30 27 27 16 200 MB DIV 54 40 59 77 72 90 45 47 29 35 -2 -1 2 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -4 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 2 2 3 LAND (KM) 218 271 325 393 411 396 439 468 435 413 369 355 359 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.2 19.7 20.3 21.1 22.1 22.9 23.6 24.0 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 106.7 107.5 108.3 109.2 110.0 111.7 113.2 114.5 115.4 115.8 115.7 115.7 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 3 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 8 12 17 17 11 5 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 433 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 17. 20. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 19. 28. 35. 38. 37. 34. 31. 30. 25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/02/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 89.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 48% is 3.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/02/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##