* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/02/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 47 52 58 66 72 74 71 70 72 65 58 V (KT) LAND 40 43 47 52 58 66 72 74 71 70 72 65 58 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 47 49 52 54 54 53 50 48 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 7 7 6 4 2 4 9 9 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -2 -5 -6 -5 -2 -3 -1 2 4 4 5 SHEAR DIR 112 111 103 115 110 153 82 169 234 252 295 279 263 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.1 27.5 26.8 26.1 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 144 144 145 144 138 130 122 117 116 117 115 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 7 7 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 73 71 70 70 65 59 50 45 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 12 14 16 19 20 20 22 25 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 17 23 26 22 25 28 31 26 26 22 21 6 10 200 MB DIV 55 58 70 39 41 51 43 45 32 26 23 -9 -4 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 0 2 1 1 2 0 0 LAND (KM) 289 355 426 429 422 450 516 469 410 373 333 316 280 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.8 20.5 21.6 22.8 23.5 23.8 24.4 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.5 109.4 110.4 111.3 112.8 114.3 115.3 115.7 115.7 115.4 115.4 115.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 14 19 20 13 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 454 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 16. 17. 18. 24. 21. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 32. 34. 32. 30. 32. 25. 18. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/02/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/02/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##