* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/03/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 57 64 70 80 87 85 80 77 75 64 47 V (KT) LAND 45 51 57 64 70 80 87 85 80 77 75 64 47 V (KT) LGE mod 45 50 55 59 63 68 70 68 63 57 53 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 6 6 8 5 1 6 8 7 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -5 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 0 5 6 12 SHEAR DIR 74 63 64 62 64 39 60 59 157 285 234 254 233 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 145 145 145 144 136 129 124 119 116 114 115 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -51.1 -51.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 77 76 77 75 76 74 71 67 61 51 44 41 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 16 18 20 23 27 27 27 28 29 24 16 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 9 17 25 19 19 23 20 16 11 -4 -9 200 MB DIV 72 49 37 23 25 21 26 21 8 13 27 24 4 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -4 -2 0 -1 0 2 0 1 -1 -1 -8 LAND (KM) 352 420 493 478 474 477 498 454 406 379 384 343 292 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.3 18.4 18.7 18.9 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.5 23.2 24.0 24.5 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 108.1 109.0 109.9 110.7 111.6 113.2 114.5 115.2 115.4 115.6 116.0 116.0 115.6 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 9 8 7 4 4 4 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 14 20 21 22 12 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 21. 21. 23. 25. 18. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 25. 35. 42. 40. 35. 32. 30. 19. 2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##