* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/03/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 53 59 64 75 77 77 74 71 69 61 42 V (KT) LAND 45 48 53 59 64 75 77 77 74 71 69 61 42 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 50 52 55 56 55 53 51 48 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 6 5 9 7 3 8 7 11 10 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 -5 -1 -1 0 5 8 8 SHEAR DIR 64 40 39 47 71 51 103 137 245 261 268 235 231 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.2 27.8 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 145 145 146 142 132 126 122 119 119 117 117 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.2 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 77 77 77 76 73 69 67 61 55 49 44 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 17 19 20 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 24 13 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 18 29 19 24 15 22 26 22 0 -1 -19 200 MB DIV 45 35 33 49 24 19 -10 24 18 32 20 49 5 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -3 0 -1 -3 1 2 5 4 7 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 378 437 467 452 455 493 465 406 346 304 286 273 276 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.2 20.1 21.3 22.2 22.9 23.6 24.4 24.6 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.3 110.2 111.1 111.9 113.7 114.8 115.1 115.0 115.0 115.1 115.0 115.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 8 9 9 6 4 4 4 2 0 1 HEAT CONTENT 11 16 20 21 20 10 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 6. 8. 16. 18. 19. 19. 19. 20. 15. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 14. 19. 30. 32. 32. 29. 26. 24. 16. -3. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##