* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/03/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 52 57 62 71 72 71 68 67 61 43 20 V (KT) LAND 45 48 52 57 62 71 72 71 68 67 61 43 20 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 49 50 53 54 52 50 47 43 39 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 6 5 5 8 4 4 6 8 14 22 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 2 3 6 9 13 8 SHEAR DIR 33 18 57 69 42 74 61 118 288 239 253 231 240 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.3 26.7 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 147 145 136 129 123 122 118 115 115 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.7 -51.4 -50.6 -51.4 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 76 76 76 74 74 70 61 57 53 47 43 35 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 21 22 24 27 27 28 28 29 27 19 7 850 MB ENV VOR 4 15 27 16 14 20 17 22 19 13 1 -1 -12 200 MB DIV 33 30 44 37 35 11 -12 19 7 29 31 6 -3 700-850 TADV -5 -3 0 -5 -5 0 0 1 4 1 1 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 437 467 453 460 487 552 549 524 463 402 343 289 248 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.5 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.5 24.5 24.9 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.3 111.3 112.2 113.1 115.0 116.3 116.6 116.3 116.0 116.0 115.7 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 9 10 9 6 3 4 4 4 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 15 19 21 17 11 4 6 5 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 8. 14. 15. 16. 16. 18. 16. 3. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 26. 27. 26. 23. 22. 16. -2. -25. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##