* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/03/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 65 70 76 81 80 78 72 68 60 43 22 V (KT) LAND 55 60 65 70 76 81 80 78 72 68 60 43 22 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 64 68 71 74 73 69 64 59 54 48 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 7 8 4 3 10 7 11 12 21 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -6 -4 -4 -6 -2 -1 0 7 8 13 7 SHEAR DIR 27 40 49 29 22 68 64 214 241 244 252 229 226 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.1 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 147 146 142 134 127 123 119 117 116 119 122 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.3 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 74 73 68 63 56 51 46 41 33 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 22 24 26 27 27 27 27 27 26 18 8 850 MB ENV VOR 13 23 21 17 18 15 17 22 19 8 4 -4 -3 200 MB DIV 33 46 37 30 35 6 14 8 19 34 29 16 -11 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -3 -3 -3 1 0 4 3 6 1 -9 -17 LAND (KM) 477 464 475 493 530 546 518 478 438 377 305 231 175 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.8 21.7 22.4 23.1 23.9 24.6 25.1 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.1 111.1 112.1 113.0 113.9 115.4 116.1 116.2 116.2 115.9 115.5 115.0 114.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 7 5 3 4 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 18 12 8 3 7 3 0 0 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 8. -3. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 21. 26. 25. 23. 17. 13. 5. -12. -33. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/03/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##