* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/04/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 78 83 87 88 86 80 73 63 47 19 19 V (KT) LAND 65 72 78 83 87 88 86 80 73 63 47 19 19 V (KT) LGE mod 65 73 80 85 87 85 80 72 65 57 50 42 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 6 4 3 0 3 9 11 13 19 27 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -3 -4 -1 3 3 5 7 15 11 11 SHEAR DIR 45 29 5 34 98 34 282 262 243 276 227 229 234 SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 144 140 135 129 123 117 115 115 114 114 116 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.6 -50.7 -51.2 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 70 67 63 56 52 48 42 35 26 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 25 19 6 13 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 19 22 20 19 26 29 26 11 13 -14 -31 200 MB DIV 57 41 37 35 19 -10 35 9 22 23 18 -13 -19 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -2 -1 0 1 7 2 2 -9 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 448 458 500 535 547 534 515 476 415 358 306 249 184 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.5 22.5 23.3 23.9 24.4 24.9 25.4 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 111.1 112.3 113.4 114.2 115.1 116.1 116.7 116.7 116.3 116.1 116.0 115.8 115.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 16 10 7 4 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 0. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 5. -3. -22. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 18. 22. 23. 21. 15. 8. -2. -18. -46. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 32% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##