* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/04/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 86 88 87 82 77 68 51 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 86 88 87 82 77 68 51 30 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 76 81 84 84 81 75 69 62 54 48 41 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 5 4 1 2 10 12 15 18 27 33 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -4 -3 -5 -3 1 1 0 6 3 10 11 6 SHEAR DIR 65 24 32 75 202 192 208 234 245 234 224 228 232 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.3 25.5 25.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 140 136 131 124 120 116 113 113 115 115 114 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.3 -51.0 -50.9 -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.6 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 74 71 70 65 61 56 51 43 38 35 27 24 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 26 26 26 26 26 27 26 20 12 6 10 850 MB ENV VOR 32 26 29 25 28 32 33 32 19 9 -1 -17 -26 200 MB DIV 39 34 26 14 -16 24 15 20 33 24 4 -11 -16 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -2 -3 2 3 5 4 -3 -4 -2 -7 LAND (KM) 460 489 542 553 565 562 537 505 425 357 300 228 163 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.7 20.1 20.6 21.1 22.0 22.6 23.3 24.1 24.6 24.9 25.5 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.3 114.3 115.2 116.1 116.9 117.0 117.0 116.8 116.4 115.9 115.6 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 8 4 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 17 10 7 4 12 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. -2. -15. -23. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 18. 17. 12. 7. -2. -19. -40. -58. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##