* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/04/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 98 102 104 104 97 87 76 60 42 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 98 102 104 104 97 87 76 60 42 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 98 101 100 97 87 77 66 56 48 40 33 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 4 2 4 13 20 20 27 39 45 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -4 -4 0 5 6 5 7 12 8 7 2 SHEAR DIR 7 347 314 241 210 238 236 246 257 232 236 238 249 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.7 25.1 24.9 25.0 25.0 24.9 25.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 145 140 134 130 125 118 111 108 108 110 109 110 110 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.6 -51.0 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 70 67 62 59 56 50 45 40 39 35 28 21 19 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 27 26 28 27 28 27 25 20 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 29 21 21 22 26 24 21 15 15 13 -14 -15 200 MB DIV 23 31 2 -15 -12 18 2 34 14 33 -6 -9 -21 700-850 TADV -2 -4 0 -2 0 3 4 3 2 -6 -6 -4 -11 LAND (KM) 477 521 519 526 548 564 477 431 408 363 282 208 136 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.1 23.0 24.1 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.9 26.4 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.4 115.4 116.1 116.8 117.5 117.6 117.5 117.3 117.1 116.9 116.4 115.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 8 7 5 4 2 1 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9 6 2 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -24. -30. -34. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -2. -8. -15. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 10. 7. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -6. -20. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 14. 7. -3. -14. -30. -48. -74. -92.-102. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/04/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##