* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/05/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 119 117 111 104 85 69 53 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 115 119 117 111 104 85 69 53 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 116 110 101 92 77 64 54 45 37 30 24 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 7 10 13 20 16 24 31 42 49 55 57 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 3 2 9 9 13 8 6 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 258 270 284 260 242 283 253 265 232 238 231 241 238 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.9 25.0 24.9 24.6 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 123 119 116 111 108 108 109 110 109 106 102 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -50.6 -51.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.5 -50.7 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 6 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 62 61 57 55 52 47 44 40 31 26 21 18 18 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 27 27 28 27 26 23 17 6 8 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 15 17 20 25 23 20 19 17 24 19 -8 -5 -3 200 MB DIV 16 7 14 25 24 19 42 28 27 -4 -10 -15 -23 700-850 TADV 1 0 4 5 4 8 6 4 -6 -2 -3 -8 -7 LAND (KM) 532 534 556 554 536 492 431 351 267 185 127 53 25 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.4 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.0 26.6 26.9 27.4 28.0 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.4 117.1 117.3 117.6 117.7 117.6 117.3 116.8 116.3 115.8 115.3 114.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 7 5 4 3 4 3 4 3 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -29. -40. -49. -57. -62. -66. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -9. -15. -23. -32. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 2. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -12. -27. -26. -19. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -4. -11. -30. -46. -62. -83.-110.-121.-126.-135. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##