* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/05/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 97 91 85 77 65 52 39 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 97 91 85 77 65 52 39 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 96 90 84 77 64 54 46 39 32 25 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 11 14 18 20 26 28 37 46 55 57 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 3 3 4 8 9 13 5 2 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 237 254 241 225 246 257 246 246 239 235 241 246 253 SST (C) 26.5 26.2 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.5 24.0 26.6 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 119 115 112 108 110 110 106 100 128 163 161 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.3 -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.3 -50.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 60 57 54 50 46 43 40 37 31 27 23 21 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 26 27 24 21 14 7 12 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 15 23 32 27 29 30 16 34 34 41 0 -2 -3 200 MB DIV 15 31 34 16 14 12 25 58 29 13 -14 -18 -23 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 2 4 7 7 -1 -8 -2 -1 -3 1 LAND (KM) 534 534 545 521 492 428 321 199 85 45 -24 49 -23 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.8 25.6 26.6 27.5 28.2 28.8 29.6 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 116.4 116.9 117.3 117.5 117.7 117.7 117.1 116.5 115.8 114.9 114.0 113.2 112.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 18 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -23. -31. -38. -44. -50. -52. -51. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -22. -31. -40. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -4. -8. -18. -28. -22. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -9. -15. -23. -35. -48. -61. -81.-103.-107.-110.-113. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##