* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/05/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 74 64 57 50 40 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 74 64 57 50 40 29 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 74 67 61 56 48 41 34 29 25 23 24 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 14 19 22 26 28 34 45 53 51 54 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 4 6 4 6 10 3 0 1 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 243 259 243 249 266 257 256 248 237 236 252 258 265 SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.1 24.6 26.8 30.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 118 115 112 108 108 110 108 102 106 129 164 155 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.0 -50.8 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -51.7 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 6 8 4 700-500 MB RH 56 54 51 47 47 45 44 37 34 29 22 22 23 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 25 25 25 22 18 11 6 10 12 14 850 MB ENV VOR 19 25 25 26 25 23 20 27 35 26 -2 4 7 200 MB DIV 34 31 15 4 16 41 35 47 28 -8 -15 -33 -27 700-850 TADV 0 5 2 4 6 6 2 -7 -13 -4 -2 1 1 LAND (KM) 542 545 528 489 453 366 267 133 44 16 -33 49 -61 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.5 25.3 26.0 27.1 28.1 28.8 29.0 29.9 31.3 LONG(DEG W) 117.0 117.3 117.6 117.7 117.7 117.4 116.8 116.1 115.3 114.6 114.1 113.4 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 4 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 19 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -16. -22. -28. -33. -37. -38. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -20. -29. -38. -47. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -8. -12. -13. -13. -11. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -23. -29. -25. -22. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -21. -28. -35. -45. -56. -67. -86.-101.-105.-105.-103. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/05/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##