* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/06/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 49 40 33 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 49 40 33 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 50 43 38 34 28 24 19 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 24 22 24 27 33 38 47 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 7 5 6 4 5 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 245 254 252 250 248 230 234 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.8 24.8 24.1 26.2 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 110 109 109 110 103 125 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.6 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 49 47 46 44 40 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 25 24 23 20 16 9 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 17 24 30 22 19 22 35 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 10 27 36 53 44 37 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 8 11 7 2 -8 -4 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 528 481 438 390 342 207 76 -30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.1 24.6 25.1 25.5 26.7 28.1 29.3 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.6 117.6 117.6 117.5 117.3 116.7 115.7 114.5 113.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 22 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -10. -18. -29. -37. -42. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE -7. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -24. -30. -30. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -20. -27. -33. -45. -57. -73. -80. -85. -91. -95. -96. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##