* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/06/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 29 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 33 28 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 27 27 30 32 40 45 54 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 4 2 3 4 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 255 253 253 246 232 230 227 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.6 24.6 24.7 24.6 23.8 25.2 28.7 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 107 108 107 99 113 148 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 3 4 4 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 48 46 46 47 44 40 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 19 15 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 29 20 13 21 18 35 42 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 21 29 31 27 50 33 23 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 8 7 0 -8 -2 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 416 358 303 236 175 96 -18 35 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.1 28.3 29.4 30.1 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.5 117.4 117.2 116.9 116.6 115.8 114.8 114.2 113.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 20 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -19. -32. -43. -50. -54. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. -4. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -4. -10. -19. -25. -28. -27. -28. -28. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -16. -21. -34. -50. -61. -67. -75. -83. -87. -87. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##