* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/06/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 30 26 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 29 33 36 42 48 48 51 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 -1 -3 2 0 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 254 253 254 248 242 232 231 228 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.7 24.7 24.6 24.3 23.3 29.1 28.4 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 108 108 107 104 94 155 147 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 3 3 5 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 46 45 40 40 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 20 18 16 15 12 8 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 21 15 19 21 22 42 63 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 21 0 8 31 23 23 12 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 6 7 0 2 0 -3 -13 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 349 284 222 169 128 68 57 -55 -211 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.6 27.2 27.7 28.9 30.3 31.6 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.4 117.1 116.8 116.6 116.3 115.5 114.1 112.9 112.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 15 38 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 3. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -2. -9. -21. -35. -48. -57. -62. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 18. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -5. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -7. -14. -19. -26. -26. -26. -27. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -32. -42. -52. -59. -69. -77. -81. -82. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/06/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##