* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/07/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 27 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 26 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 40 43 45 46 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 233 228 225 224 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.1 23.8 23.4 23.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 99 94 91 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 3 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 40 39 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 14 12 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 4 9 21 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 16 21 12 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -6 -4 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 195 162 152 94 34 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.3 30.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.9 116.7 116.4 116.1 115.7 114.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -11. -23. -38. -52. -61. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -5. -9. -15. -16. -17. -17. -16. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -19. -29. -40. -54. -67. -79. -89. -97.-100. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/07/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 2.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 50.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/07/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##