* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SIMON EP192014 10/08/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 23 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 24 22 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 43 42 51 54 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 3 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 230 230 225 226 224 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.6 24.2 28.7 29.3 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 103 98 104 152 158 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 41 41 41 39 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 10 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 9 18 23 41 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 26 10 13 22 23 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -3 -3 0 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 108 101 9 24 27 -175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.6 29.3 30.2 31.1 32.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.1 115.6 115.1 114.5 113.8 112.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 11 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 4 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 18. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. -10. -24. -42. -59. -69. -75. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -3. -7. -10. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -7. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -17. -27. -40. -54. -68. -79. -86. -88. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192014 SIMON 10/08/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 49.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192014 SIMON 10/08/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##