* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 10/09/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 52 55 54 52 50 48 44 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 45 52 55 54 52 50 48 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 37 39 40 40 39 39 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 14 13 14 15 23 33 31 34 28 33 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 0 -2 1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 221 148 169 191 228 211 203 196 205 209 231 247 282 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 149 149 149 154 154 149 143 142 142 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 137 135 135 134 136 134 127 118 117 118 118 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 9 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 57 57 54 50 44 40 37 38 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 11 12 13 12 9 6 5 4 2 850 MB ENV VOR 36 51 54 43 50 63 26 -4 -41 -44 -58 -69 -81 200 MB DIV 10 48 49 20 35 58 5 0 1 -20 -2 -21 -7 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 1 5 6 7 5 0 -7 -3 -7 -6 LAND (KM) 593 544 504 485 480 555 680 840 966 1054 1070 1051 1021 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.1 21.6 22.0 23.3 24.6 26.2 27.5 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 60.5 61.2 61.9 62.6 63.3 64.5 65.4 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.6 66.1 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 5 2 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 60 73 76 54 34 30 22 19 20 23 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 0. -5. -8. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 20. 27. 30. 29. 27. 25. 23. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 10/09/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 10/09/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 10/09/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)