* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 10/09/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 51 55 54 53 48 46 44 41 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 51 55 54 53 48 46 44 41 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 43 46 47 46 44 43 42 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 16 14 13 21 33 38 38 33 29 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -1 -4 -2 1 -3 -3 -5 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 161 164 178 203 204 197 182 192 195 213 232 262 266 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.4 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 149 149 154 154 149 141 138 137 132 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 136 136 135 134 138 136 129 121 117 115 111 111 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 -54.8 -55.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 62 60 60 60 59 55 52 44 44 39 36 34 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 850 MB ENV VOR 50 55 46 55 65 53 23 -43 -38 -45 -49 -61 -53 200 MB DIV 53 60 27 28 79 41 28 3 0 3 -3 -12 -6 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 6 10 6 3 3 -6 -4 -9 -4 -7 LAND (KM) 573 544 527 532 549 671 849 1028 1188 1332 1422 1454 1432 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.9 22.5 23.0 24.4 26.1 27.8 29.2 30.2 30.6 30.4 29.7 LONG(DEG W) 61.1 61.8 62.4 63.1 63.8 64.6 65.1 65.0 64.5 63.1 61.4 60.0 59.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 49 62 77 78 66 39 32 16 16 11 10 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -6. -11. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 21. 25. 24. 23. 18. 16. 14. 11. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 10/09/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 10/09/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 10/09/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED