* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 10/10/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 45 51 54 52 48 46 43 43 40 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 45 51 54 52 48 46 43 43 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 34 36 38 41 42 42 41 40 40 40 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 16 16 18 26 27 40 35 36 27 30 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 0 1 -4 -4 -3 -1 2 -2 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 175 186 193 185 188 186 183 190 203 217 239 277 293 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 151 154 152 147 139 136 136 137 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 134 134 135 136 132 125 116 111 111 112 110 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -54.5 -54.9 -55.1 -54.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 8 6 5 6 7 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 57 53 51 43 40 36 34 33 32 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 12 13 15 14 15 13 11 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 55 49 60 75 82 53 18 -26 -26 -31 -49 -74 -95 200 MB DIV 83 27 30 99 77 21 10 -8 -13 0 -23 -23 -39 700-850 TADV 2 3 6 10 5 2 1 0 -11 -12 -19 -5 1 LAND (KM) 540 525 520 551 595 736 883 1012 1131 1184 1176 1139 1081 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.1 22.5 23.1 23.7 25.1 26.7 28.0 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.6 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.7 63.4 64.0 64.6 65.4 65.8 65.8 65.6 65.3 65.5 65.9 66.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 4 1 1 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 69 80 75 63 47 34 28 21 20 19 19 18 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 15. 22. 24. 22. 18. 16. 13. 13. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 10/10/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 15.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 10/10/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 10/10/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED