* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 10/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 57 66 71 76 82 86 91 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 48 57 66 71 76 82 86 91 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 30 32 34 40 49 61 70 77 83 90 93 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 1 4 6 8 1 7 11 14 5 6 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -3 -5 -4 -8 -5 -5 -1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 267 246 192 243 309 59 244 272 304 209 253 205 314 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 143 142 142 144 149 152 152 155 157 153 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 142 138 136 135 138 143 146 146 149 150 143 136 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 10 11 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 65 61 58 55 51 52 47 44 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 15 15 18 850 MB ENV VOR -34 -37 -33 -26 -28 -13 -1 2 -1 -10 -6 -11 -12 200 MB DIV 10 21 1 6 -13 12 -1 9 7 21 25 10 5 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -2 -4 -3 0 5 3 3 LAND (KM) 988 986 989 985 989 869 731 623 610 474 253 160 255 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.4 16.1 17.1 18.3 19.6 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.1 51.0 51.8 52.6 54.1 55.8 57.7 59.5 61.4 63.3 65.0 66.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 47 60 54 56 63 59 53 57 71 43 47 74 90 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 723 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 32. 41. 46. 51. 57. 61. 66. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 10/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 10/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 10/10/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)