* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992014 10/10/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 44 43 43 44 44 45 46 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 44 43 43 44 44 45 46 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 32 33 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 30 30 30 40 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 2 -1 -1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 166 169 177 180 182 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 28.7 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 154 154 154 147 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 137 134 134 128 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 57 55 53 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 16 16 16 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 71 73 61 61 21 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 104 104 61 28 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 10 5 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 622 699 786 857 930 1099 1279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 7 8 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 46 35 31 26 20 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 572 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. -1. -7. -13. -18. -21. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 13. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992014 INVEST 10/10/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992014 INVEST 10/10/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992014 INVEST 10/10/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED