* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL902014 10/10/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 42 50 59 65 69 73 77 79 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 42 50 59 65 69 73 77 79 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 43 53 62 69 73 77 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 2 5 6 5 3 5 14 17 20 13 14 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -1 -6 -6 -5 -3 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 290 157 267 325 358 342 326 312 323 295 296 294 313 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 140 140 142 146 152 152 155 157 155 149 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 137 134 134 136 140 146 146 149 149 145 137 132 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.0 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 12 700-500 MB RH 65 64 64 60 58 57 53 52 48 45 43 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -36 -35 -35 -34 -17 -7 -9 -10 -21 -18 -25 -20 200 MB DIV 13 0 -4 -17 -7 8 6 8 20 5 3 14 20 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -2 0 0 0 8 12 11 10 LAND (KM) 1031 1031 1041 1027 957 824 697 634 508 299 133 155 266 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.2 17.0 17.9 18.9 19.9 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.8 51.7 52.5 53.4 55.1 57.1 59.1 61.1 62.9 64.6 66.1 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 56 51 52 61 64 56 57 69 44 44 64 77 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 31. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 17. 25. 34. 40. 44. 48. 52. 54. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902014 INVEST 10/10/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902014 INVEST 10/10/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL902014 INVEST 10/10/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)